Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 20.395665 22.213410 24.226315 26.642367 29.493440 32.789957 36.949589
2025-01-19 18.252731 20.773536 23.792093 27.760668 32.985636 39.865058 50.070429
2025-01-26 16.222728 19.013162 22.539020 27.493172 34.600921 45.063349 63.214119
2025-02-02 14.873896 17.841033 21.756288 27.575594 36.593646 51.387679 81.858286
2025-02-09 13.887936 16.978887 21.208335 27.810061 38.791655 58.854319 109.053330
2025-02-16 13.053193 16.204842 20.647154 27.873904 40.674039 66.591387 147.028815
2025-02-23 12.258429 15.395133 19.917643 27.517543 41.687345 73.079592 194.560568
2025-03-02 11.676287 14.828264 19.474117 27.538101 43.393228 82.197808 283.661162
2025-03-09 11.123617 14.253652 18.950614 27.325510 44.561896 90.798559 428.244000
2025-03-16 10.624603 13.718350 18.432690 27.038109 45.492312 99.545452 707.450530
2025-03-23 10.188745 13.246219 17.970671 26.783270 46.433984 109.340590 1457.819201
2025-03-30 9.812508 12.839427 17.578560 26.603784 47.517077 121.015448 6264.495589
2025-04-06 9.382646 12.330517 16.987338 25.983416 47.401712 128.112407 NaN
2025-04-13 9.279490 12.323904 17.239098 27.076667 52.184380 167.358475 NaN
2025-04-20 8.968767 11.969810 16.864824 26.829690 53.156432 187.848601 NaN
2025-04-27 8.733247 11.722902 16.658709 26.913075 55.182477 222.781185 NaN
2025-05-04 8.536209 11.526893 16.526904 27.140054 57.786642 275.459866 NaN
2025-05-11 8.330559 11.305696 16.332918 27.202197 59.902722 338.639589 NaN
2025-05-18 8.085947 11.008727 15.981138 26.860487 60.491341 388.732162 NaN
2025-05-25 7.903886 10.807382 15.792837 26.880396 62.487744 493.958396 NaN
2025-06-01 7.705711 10.570424 15.523503 26.676332 63.570278 607.000827 NaN
2025-06-08 7.510921 10.331406 15.236844 26.400321 64.298797 744.018763 NaN
2025-06-15 7.331074 10.110868 14.973428 26.155500 65.115287 944.874104 NaN